Is Black Friday Becoming Black Thursday for Retailers in 2014?

Black Friday has evolved from a calendar event to a seasonal shopping concept that, while firmly embedded in the consumer’s consciousness, now provides less urgency than it once did. Empowered by Internet research and a smorgasbord of e-commerce options, shoppers are becoming much more savvy about searching out the best deals, and retailers need to understand and capitalize on perceptions and behaviors that continue to evolve.

 

Slowing Growth in Black Friday Activity

2013 saw a small 2.3% increase in overall sales, marking the slowest growth since 2009. (source: CNN Money). While part of this could be due to general economic trends (see http://inequalityforall.com/ for an insightful perspective), there has also been a watering down of activity on Black Friday proper as Thanksgiving day and Cyber Monday gain traction.  In the US, many stores are now opening on Thursday evening to get a leg up on competitors and bow to consumers’  desire to get a head start on the shopping season.

 

 

Huge Growth in Online and, in Particular, Mobile Shopping

Not surprisingly, online sales were a major contributor to overall  revenue growth on Thanksgiving and Black Friday in 2013, with numbers up over 18.5% from 2012 (source: TechCrunch). This is in line with the general trends around online shopping, which of course does not require a retailer to open its physical location on the Thanksgiving holiday. This especially benefits retailers like Amazon who have no physical overhead associated with being open on a holiday. In addition, many stores are offering online only sales that incentivize users to stay at home

Mobile traffic grew to 39.7% of all online traffic, which represents  an increase of 34% over Black Friday 2012, while mobile sales made up 21.8% of total online sales, an increase of 43% over  last year (source: TechCrunch)

 

Mission Shopping and Increased Research Activity

Overall foot traffic to stores decreased in 2013 as the ecommerce activity filled the gap in sales. More disturbing for retailers is the fact that average spending per consumer dropped from $423  to less than $408 as shoppers became more focused on “mission shopping”. Using the interet to research and select purchases in advance, many consumers arrived in stores with an intention to spend on only the most discounted merchandise.

Thursday is the new Friday

If you want to be competitive in 2014 you’ll have to start earlier. In 2013, 1 in 5 American adults shopped on Thanksgiving day – up from 15% the year before (marketing charts). As ecommerce trends continue steeply upwards, this number is likely to grow.  Even if you are a smaller retailer who wont be open on thanksgiving, ensure you have online only offers set up and promoted for Thursday, before someone else captures your customer’s attention.

 

jar-blog-black-friday-graph

 

In addition, trends indicate that consumers are generally planning to shop earlier in the season with 27% having said that they planned to have all their shopping done by December 1st in 2013 vs. 24% one year earlier.

 

The Take-Away:

With so much shopping and browsing happening ahead of time, Waiting until Friday to begin your sales may leave you behind your competitors. Plan to begin offering your promotions as early on Thursday as possible.

Plan ahead in order to start early – as soon as back  to school season in your rear view mirror, make a game plan backward from the Thanksgiving season, including promotional dates and offer, to ensure your on top of the competition when the holiday season heats up.